Coinbase Research Indicates Bullish Crypto Market Outlook for H2 2025 Amid Improving U.S. Economic Conditions

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are showing signs of entering a stronger phase in the second half of 2025, driven by easing macroeconomic risks and a positive shift in investor sentiment. According to David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, digital assets could experience significant gains as fiscal initiatives and pro-growth policies begin to take effect. Duong highlights that the worst of recent economic challenges, including trade tensions and inflationary pressures, may be subsiding, creating a more favorable environment for crypto investments. This optimistic outlook is further supported by clearer U.S. economic indicators, suggesting a potential rally in the crypto market as confidence returns. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as the alignment of policy support and macroeconomic stability could unlock new opportunities in the digital asset space.

Crypto Market Outlook Strengthens as U.S. Economic Clouds Begin to Clear

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market appear poised for a stronger phase in the second half of 2025, buoyed by easing macroeconomic risks and improving investor sentiment. Coinbase''s Head of Research, David Duong, suggests that digital assets could see significant gains as fiscal initiatives materialize and pro-growth policies take hold.

Duong notes that the worst of recent economic headwinds—including tariff uncertainties and recession fears—may now be behind us. However, he cautions that rising long-dated Treasury yields, particularly in the 10- to 30-year range, could tighten financial conditions unexpectedly. The 30-year yield recently hit 5.15%, a two-decade high, raising concerns about borrowing costs.

Coinbase had earlier projected a market bottom in the first half of 2025, setting the stage for a potential rally. Despite recent rebounds, Duong sees further upside ahead, though the path remains fraught with volatility.

Shopify Tests USDC Payments on Coinbase’s Base Network

Shopify is advancing its digital payments strategy by piloting stablecoin transactions using USDC on Coinbase’s Base, an ethereum Layer-2 network known for its speed and low costs. A select group of merchants gained early access on June 13, with a full rollout anticipated later this year through Shop Pay and Shopify Payments.

The initiative stems from a broader collaboration with Coinbase, targeting the development of a blockchain-powered payment infrastructure. Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke highlighted stablecoins as a natural evolution for e-commerce, citing their potential to simplify cross-border transactions. The company plans to incentivize adoption with perks like 1% cashback in local currency, though users will need a compatible crypto wallet to transact in USDC.

Base, the underlying network, already handles 6% of all USDC circulation, cementing its role in the stablecoin ecosystem. While Shopify has yet to confirm multi-chain support, community feedback suggests demand for expanded compatibility. The e-commerce giant has a long history with crypto, enabling Bitcoin payments via third-party gateways since 2013 and currently integrating solutions like BitPay and Solana Pay.

Gemini and Coinbase Near MiCA Licenses to Expand EU Operations

Gemini and Coinbase are poised to secure regulatory approval under the EU''s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, granting them access to all 27 member states. The licenses, once finalized, WOULD mark a significant milestone for both exchanges as they expand their European footprint.

MiCA, implemented earlier this year, represents the EU''s most comprehensive effort to standardize crypto regulation. The framework empowers national authorities to issue bloc-wide licenses, streamlining operations for compliant firms. However, disparities in approval timelines and scrutiny levels have sparked concerns among regulators.

Malta has emerged as a focal point in these discussions. The jurisdiction recently fast-tracked approvals for Crypto.com and OKX, with Gemini reportedly next in line. This rapid licensing pace has raised questions about whether some EU members prioritize expediency over rigorous oversight.

The debate underscores broader tensions in regulating a trillion-dollar digital asset market. MiCA was designed to create uniform standards across Europe, emphasizing transparency and investor protection. Yet divergent implementation approaches threaten to undermine its harmonizing objectives.